Debby Deluge

Tropical storm Debby which hit Florida as a category 1 hurricane is dropping record rainfall across the southeastern U.S. As the eye of the storm circulated around us yesterday afternoon on 8/8/24, the rain stopped briefly allowing time for my son and me to take a bike ride for this photo op showing submerged Richardson Road at Reedy Branch Creek in the Apex Friendship area of North Carolina. We received four inches of rainfall in one day with most of the rain falling in the morning! This is the same road we previously helped to pick up trash. Much of the trash if it get into the stream would be very dangerous to wildlife. With the road block detour diverting traffic around the flooded road, we noticed many homes and farms cut off and wondered how they would be able to come and go.

So for all the people who enjoy or dislike going outdoors, driving cars, fishing, and generally surviving on this planet, can we all agree to do more to reduce trashing the roads, wasting gasoline, emitting carbon, and respect all lives found in nature?

February 2nd Groundhog's Weather Prediction Accuracy

Today, quite unusually,, Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow predicting an early spring! The Pennsylvania groundhog’s family has been making these predictions for 133 years! When our son was young we learned to sing the song to remember this event:

I’m a Little Groundhog, short and stout.

February 2nd I come out!

If I see my shadow, they will shout,

Six more weeks of winter no doubt!

It’s a fun song for kids and might stimulate their imagination for animal instincts and nature. Also, for the whole family the Bill Murray-Andie MacDowell 1993 movie repeatedly is a fan favorite!

But for rational adults, how accurate are Phil’s predictions as compared to actual temperature results?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is part of the Department of Commerce which includes the National Weather Service. Not only do they provide life-saving, super critical data for all of us everyday, they’ve also compared Phil’s historic predictions to actual temperatures! Here’s some groundhog history:

“Groundhog Day originates from an ancient celebration of the midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox—the day right in the middle of astronomical winter. According to superstition, sunny skies that day signify a stormy and cold second half of winter while cloudy skies indicate the arrival of warm weather. “

Surprisingly, Phil’s saw his shadow to predict longer winters 104 years and did not see his shadow to predict early spring 18 years. In the past 10 years, Phil’s been correct only 40% of the time but that is like batting .400!

What's SNOTEL telling us about Current Snow-Water Conditions in Colorado?

Over the past week, over 22 inches of snow fell on the Grand Mesa of Grand Junction. Now the snow-water equivalent for the northern mountains of Colorado is above 80% of normal. However, the southern mountains including the San Juan's are well below 50% of normal. We will see if spring snowfall can make up the deficits to avoid another water crisis.

For more information on this important federal website, see NCRS!